Preliminary results of scenario studies carried out as part of the Polish Digital Resilience Agenda 2040 project – a model for strategic preparation for the antinomies of digitalisation.

Rampa wzdłuż zakrzywionej ściany w muzeum Kiasma, Helsinki, Finlandia

Join us on a journey into scenario planning based on the multidimensional deduction method.

The primary aim of this type of research is not — as is commonly believed — to attempt to predict the future. Scenarios are primarily a tool for testing strategies.

Their role is to answer the questions: "Is a given entity or institution prepared for a specific scenario, and to what extent? What measures should be taken to mitigate its negative effects or take advantage of the opportunities it presents?" This is intended to encourage institutions to review their strategies, which we hope will contribute to increasing the resilience of institutions, especially economic entities. We have realised that, due to their complexity and labour-intensive nature, such research projects should not be carried out individually, and that institutions need tools of this kind. Is this really the case? The answer to this question depends on you and on how useful our work will be to you.

There is still a lot of work ahead of us in this project. In addition to the publication, we want to use the scenarios to prepare a set of business models for the future for the IT sector and beyond. These will be studies (actually, they already exist) that allow for the optimisation of resources and the setting of long-term strategic goals based on innovative business ideas. At this stage, we are presenting the scenarios themselves. If you are particularly interested in a specific area or scenario, we will provide you with this information individually. We are working on the classic assumption that, due to the volume of material, "one should not multiply entities beyond what is necessary".

Please let us know whether you find the tools we have developed useful and whether it is worth continuing this type of work in the future. We also welcome any comments and suggestions regarding the scenarios themselves. We would be extremely grateful for any feedback. We are also happy to help implement the results of our research in the form of individually designed business model proposals. These represent a special kind of resilience. More on this topic can be found at https://www.ideebiznesowe.pl.

We therefore encourage you to read on. In the presentations, we have tried to present the results of our work in as concise a form as possible. Each presentation contains a short, one-page summary of the scenario. A more detailed summary is also available. As the analytical materials attached below show, all 20 scenarios involve a kind of "interconnected mechanism". This means that a given strategic area contains content that is not necessarily directly related to it. For example, the area of social policy is largely dependent on energy — through "energy poverty" and the likely prioritisation of energy supplies for IT systems at the expense of citizens. In turn, the future of energy itself is potentially dependent on the future of industry.

Research results


Integrated results and comparisons


Scenarios

Strategic areaScenarioPresentationSynopsis
Education, schooling and learning"Her Highness Emergence" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Stratified worlds" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Phoenix from the ashes" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 The Obedience Factory [pol] [eng] [pol]
   
Energy"Window of resources and potential" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "The digital foundation for development" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Short duvet" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Systemic instability" [pol] [eng] [pol]
   
 Economy and competitiveness of enterprisesThe Polish paradox [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Between automation and the social value of work" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 The paradox of Poland's transformation [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Techno-polarisation" [pol] [eng] [pol]
   
 Internet and ITTowards an integrated digital-biological infrastructure [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Convergence of seven vectors" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 CyberTransformation [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Reconfiguration" [pol] [eng] [pol]
   
 Polityka społeczna i zdrowotna"Hyperprotective system" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Hybrid reality" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Digital Judo" [pol] [eng] [pol]
 "Crisis convergence" [pol] [eng] [pol]

We are committed to transparency and public engagement in our work. The publications listed above are not the final outputs of the project, but rather working reports and studies marking the conclusion of the research phase. They will form the basis for a final publication, which will present, in a concise manner, not only the scenarios themselves but also the strategic recommendations derived from them. We want you to be not only the recipients of these visions but also their active creators.

contact us

We look forward to receiving your comments and thoughts.

info@cyfryzacja.org

The materials on this website may be published elsewhere and freely processed, provided that the source is acknowledged.