Preliminary results of scenario studies carried out as part of the Polish Digital Resilience Agenda 2040 project – a model for strategic preparation for the antinomies of digitalisation.

Rampa wzdłuż zakrzywionej ściany w muzeum Kiasma, Helsinki, Finlandia

We invite you to embark on an adventure with scenario planning.

The main purpose of this type of research is not, as is commonly believed, to predict the future. Scenarios are primarily a tool for testing strategies.

Their role is to answer the questions: "Is a given entity or institution prepared for a specific scenario, and to what extent? What measures should be taken to mitigate its negative effects or take advantage of the opportunities it presents?" This is intended to encourage institutions to review their strategies, which we hope will contribute to increasing the resilience of institutions, especially economic entities. We have realised that, due to their complexity and labour-intensive nature, such research projects should not be carried out individually, and that institutions need tools of this kind. Is this really the case? The answer to this question depends on you and on how useful our work will be to you.

There is still a lot of work ahead of us in this project. In addition to the publication, we want to use the scenarios to prepare a set of business models for the future for the IT sector and beyond. These will be studies (actually, they already exist) that allow for the optimisation of resources and the setting of long-term strategic goals based on innovative business ideas. At this stage, we are presenting the scenarios themselves. If you are particularly interested in a specific area or scenario, we will provide you with this information individually. We are working on the classic assumption that, due to the volume of material, "one should not multiply entities beyond what is necessary".

Please let us know whether you find the tools we have developed useful and whether it is worth continuing this type of work in the future. We also welcome any comments and suggestions regarding the scenarios themselves. We would be extremely grateful for any feedback. We are also happy to help implement the results of our research in the form of individually designed business model proposals. These represent a special kind of resilience. More on this topic can be found at https://www.ideebiznesowe.pl.

We therefore encourage you to read on. In the presentations, we have tried to present the results of our work in as concise a form as possible. Each presentation contains a short, one-page summary of the scenario. A more detailed summary is also available. As the analytical materials attached below show, all 20 scenarios involve a kind of "interconnected mechanism". This means that a given strategic area contains content that is not necessarily directly related to it. For example, the area of social policy is largely dependent on energy — through "energy poverty" and the likely prioritisation of energy supplies for IT systems at the expense of citizens. In turn, the future of energy itself is potentially dependent on the future of industry.

Research results


Integrated results and comparisons


Scenarios

Strategic areaScenarioPresentationSynopsis
Education, schooling and learning"Her Highness Emergence" pdf pdf
 "Stratified worlds" pdf pdf
 "Phoenix from the ashes" pdf pdf
 The Obedience Factory pdf pdf
   
Energy"Window of resources and potential" pdf pdf
 "The digital foundation for development" pdf pdf
 "Short duvet" pdf pdf
 "Systemic instability" pdf pdf
   
 Economy and competitiveness of enterprisesThe Polish paradox pdf pdf
 "Between automation and the social value of work" pdf pdf
 The paradox of Poland's transformation pdf pdf
 "Techno-polarisation" pdf pdf
   
 Internet and ITTowards an integrated digital-biological infrastructure pdf pdf
 "Convergence of seven vectors" pdf pdf
 CyberTransformation pdf pdf
 "Reconfiguration" pdf pdf
Polityka społeczna i zdrowotna   
 "Hyperprotective system" pdf pdf
 "Hybrid reality" pdf pdf
 "Digital Judo" pdf pdf
 "Crisis convergence" pdf pdf

contact us

We look forward to receiving your comments and thoughts.

info@cyfryzacja.org