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Classification orbits method
The commonly used PESTEL analysis does not always capture the important nuances associated with the present day. Moreover, the division of factors into political, economic, social, technological and environmental is generally useful for describing a company's macroeconomic environment, but does not always work well in describing larger social and economic processes. In the course of the research, we encountered quite a problem. We already ...
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Agenda 2040: the next challenges
At the current stage of the project, we have a set of eight mind maps classifying factors based on cause-and-effect relationships. This is the result of internal research and workshops. We are now faced with an attempt to synthesise and systematise this knowledge. It is still working material. We are faced with the challenge of how to create a multifaceted map of relationships to optimally proceed with scenario building. It represents...
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The parable of the two (actually three) backpacks
A common misconception is to imagine that predictive research or scenario analysis is an attempt to predict the future. Many people unfamiliar with the subject imagine people dressed in strange costumes, gazing into a glass ball or rearranging cards with gruesome images. Nothing could be further from the truth. The aim of this type of research and analysis is not to predict the future, but to try to create...
