Editing the content of the scenarios is an extremely laborious and multi-faceted task. We have therefore decided to publish partial materials first. Attached are qualitative and quantitative analyses describing the issues raised in the scenarios, together with an attempt to assess their significance in the context of their interrelationships. The data covers all strategic areas and scenarios developed in the study. There are also a handful of statistics on the study itself, which shed some new light on the significance of the issues examined. In the near future, we will make presentations on individual strategic areas available.
Of course, the analysis itself does not refer directly to the content and conclusions of the scenarios themselves, but indicates them as a kind of "system of interconnected vessels" in which, as it turns out, the areas of the economy and social policy play a key role, while education and energy constitute separate islands of problems.
What are the key conclusions from this form of analysis?
- The dominance of the lock-in problem (dependence on the supplier)
Dependence on foreign technology providers (AWS, Azure, Google, Western digital platforms) occurs in 18 out of 20 scenarios – this is the most serious threat to Poland's digital sovereignty.
- High level of cross-sectoral linkages
Over 40% of problems arise in at least three different strategic areas, which demonstrates the systemic nature of digital transformation.
- The economy as a central hub
The economic sphere has the strongest links to the others (total of 753 points), particularly social policy (227 points) – this suggests that economic problems quickly translate into exclusion and inequality.
4. Dystopian scenarios as accelerators of problems
The scenarios marked as E4, G4, POL4, IT4 (the fourth scenarios in each area) contain the most critical issues (•••) – these are the most pessimistic visions.
5. Relative isolation of Education and Energy The weakest link (35 points) suggests that educational and energy issues rarely overlap directly – they operate in different ecosystems.
More in the attachments