The commonly used PESTEL analysis does not always capture the important nuances associated with the present day. Moreover, the division of factors into political, economic, social, technological and environmental is generally useful for describing a company's macroeconomic environment, but does not always work well in describing larger social and economic processes. During the course of the research, we encountered quite a problem. Already at the initial stage, we noticed that some of the diagnosed variables of change and processes could not be unambiguously classified into any category of PESTEL factors. It was therefore necessary to propose a different division of these factors. After much research and attempts at classification, we came up with a slightly different division into geopolitical, civilisational, cargo, regulatory and local factors. This classification perfectly reflects global processes and allows a different way of looking at the accumulated data sets. Using this classification, certain issues started to come together in a clear way. It was also easier to find cause-and-effect relationships and to work out the primary factor so important in predictive research. Furthermore, the method is well suited to classifying uncertain phenomena, thus characteristic of scenario analysis.
So how do we describe this division? The best way is with a metaphor.
Imagine that we are standing on a small planet around which all sorts of objects are orbiting. They affect not only us but also each other and are in different orbits. The more massive satellites are in further orbits. We can often barely see them, but we know that they are huge, albeit distant, and that by their mass or by the radio signal they transmit, they have a fundamental impact both on us, on our little planet, and on other objects orbiting in different orbits. Closer objects, on the other hand, we can take a closer look. They are almost at our fingertips, but their shape, rate of rotation or the range of the signals they emit are small compared to massive objects in the distance.
By simply placing the previously diagnosed drivers of change into one of the five orbits surrounding our planet, a certain way of describing reality can be achieved. These orbits (counting from the outermost) are:
- Geopolitical Orbit (order-creating political factors determined by space and rival powers),
- Civilisational Orbit (broadly defined cultural factors that are an aberration of the formed order),
- Cargo Orbit (cultural and technical creations that can be bought or sold),
- Orbit of Regulation (legal forms of shaped governance and the effect of corporate lobbying),
- Orbit of Local Factors (everything else that creates local specificity).
Here is a brief characterisation of the different orbits and the factors that should potentially be classified into it:
Orbit 1 - Geopolitical (spatial determination in the creation of international (imperial) policy
These are factors that are often the result of geographically determined, political rivalries between powers affecting global security. Here we are dealing with processes of socio-economic order-building based on spatial determinants. The logic determined by space, resources and trade routes is independent of our will. It represents a collection of the 'heaviest' objects affecting us and other objects. The sum of the objects moving at different rates in this orbit can, by their combined mass, fundamentally alter the arrangement of other factors in closer orbits. Here we are dealing with 'pre-processes' that are generally unhurried but irreversible as befits: space-induced political determinisms. Phenomena of this type result in disruption, but also in the creation of an international order, resulting in the establishment of international organisations dealing with a given globally relevant issue (World Health Organisation (WHO), World Trade Organisation (WTO)). Issues that can be considered as derivatives of factors in this orbit can include: global digital security and its standards, public health (epidemics and pandemics), prevention of the effects of climate change, international security.
Orbit 2 - Civilisation (network culture)
It encompasses sustainable, bottom-up cultural, economic and social phenomena of supra-local scope that are beyond the control of political forces: religious and ethical issues, the evolution of language and commonly held notions and values, phenomena such as non-commercial global mass culture (GNU movement, punk rock, graffiti, Linux), natural and bottom-up communication routes, economic relations, bottom-up and natural cooperation.
An essential determinant of belonging to this orbit of factors is their supra-local, bottom-up and non-commercial nature of the phenomena.
Orbit 3 - Cargo (ideas, ideologies and technologies)
It is said that modern industry not only satisfies, but above all creates needs. Even the most laudable ideas eventually take on a commercialised form and become a source for exploring needs, generating products and a space for seeking concrete advantages. The essential criterion separating the Cargo Orbit from the Civilisation Orbit is precisely its commercial nature. It can be said that this orbit represents a business field of exploitation by large economic organisms of the two orbits preceding it. This expansion takes place in various areas and often produces a subordination and dependency effect. Examples: mono-declamation originating from the American racial ghettos has become the most popular musical trend (rap) within two decades, local dishes become global products offered in automated fast-food bars, ideas become a tool for blocking one's own market or expanding into external markets.
Commercial supra-local - exploitation of values and advantages. All factors are treated as opportunities and modified for commercial needs. In practice, it can be said to be the influence of corporations on various spheres of life or cultural, economic and social phenomena of supra-local scope created for mercantile purposes.
The Cargo Orbit can also include phenomena resulting from the supra-local expansion of economic systems. These are often preceded by external ideas, fads or ideologies eventually taking on a mercantile dimension in the form of the provision of products or technological standards, and originally spontaneous ideas and social movements become, over time, instruments of product creation or objects of mass culture.
Orbit 4 - Regulatory (right)
The preceding three orbits (and especially the last one) have a fundamental influence on the creation of regulatory order, laws and formal rules to which countries must adhere during globalisation in order to retain the privilege of participating in world trade. This orbit includes the effects of international agreements and EU regulations, among others, and the source of rules and policies often remains today's international organisations or the lobbying of large economic organisms creating standards and governance. The standards wars or the influence of digital solutions, so characteristic of the digital world, are reflected in this orbit.
Orbit 5 - Local world - local (national) conditions
The space for the adaptation of more distant phenomena to local conditions. It is the internal politics of the state and the spaces of its autonomous activity as well as the local institutions within it. In this orbit, all phenomena can be observed, which include, among others: education, security, population health care, national culture, self-organisation of citizens at national level. The phenomena that we often experience as citizens should be placed in this set.
In addition to agents in the five described orbits, it is also possible to diagnose agents that do not fit into any of these categories. These are meteorites, i.e. factors that orbit themselves. These may include climate change as a trend, but many such factors are so-called "black swans". - i.e. phenomena that cannot be clearly classified. There are relatively few of them, but this mechanism seems to have a significant advantage over the classically understood PESTEL mechanism.
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