{"id":3059,"date":"2026-02-11T18:36:13","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T18:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/?p=3059"},"modified":"2026-02-21T15:19:36","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T15:19:36","slug":"analiza-jakosciowo-ilosciowa-scenariuszy-agendy-2040","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wiadomosci\/analiza-jakosciowo-ilosciowa-scenariuszy-agendy-2040\/","title":{"rendered":"Qualitative and quantitative analysis of Agenda 2040 scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"585\" src=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/analiza-scenarisuzy-1024x585.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3063\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/analiza-scenarisuzy-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/analiza-scenarisuzy-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/analiza-scenarisuzy-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/analiza-scenarisuzy-18x10.png 18w, https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/analiza-scenarisuzy.png 1344w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Editing the content of the scenarios is an exceptionally laborious and multi-faceted task. We have therefore decided to publish partial materials first. Attached, we present qualitative and quantitative analyses describing the issues raised in the scenarios, together with an assessment of their significance in the context of their interrelationships. The data covers all strategic areas and scenarios developed in the study. We have also included a handful of statistics on the study itself, which shed some new light on the significance of the issues examined. In the near future, we will make presentations on individual strategic areas available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, the analysis itself does not refer directly to the content and conclusions of the scenarios themselves, but indicates them as a kind of \"system of interconnected vessels\" in which, as it turns out, the areas of the economy and social policy play a key role, while education and energy constitute separate islands of problems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What are the key conclusions from this form of analysis?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The dominance of the lock-in problem (dependence on the supplier)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Dependence on foreign technology providers (AWS, Azure, Google, Western digital platforms) occurs in&nbsp;<strong>18 out of 20 scenarios<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 this is the most serious threat to Poland's digital sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>High level of cross-sectoral linkages<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">Over 40% of problems arise in at least three different strategic areas, which demonstrates the systemic nature of digital transformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The economy as a central hub<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">The economic sphere has the strongest links to the others (total of 753 points), particularly <strong>social policy<\/strong> (227 points) \u2013 this suggests that economic problems quickly translate into exclusion and inequality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4. Dystopian scenarios as accelerators of problems<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">The scenarios marked as <strong>E4, G4, POL4, IT4<\/strong> (the fourth scenarios in each area) contain the most critical issues (\u2022\u2022\u2022) \u2013 these are the most pessimistic visions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\"><strong>5. Relative isolation of Education and Energy<\/strong> The weakest link (35 points) suggests that educational and energy issues rarely overlap directly \u2013 they operate in <strong>different ecosystems<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More in the attachments<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1_macierz_problemow_strategicznych.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of 1_macierz_problem\u00f3w_strategicznych.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-f867a1f7-ca6b-4e5a-baaf-b2ae6bd8abd4\" href=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1_macierz_problemow_strategicznych.pdf\">1_macierz_problem\u00f3w_strategicznych<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/1_macierz_problemow_strategicznych.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-f867a1f7-ca6b-4e5a-baaf-b2ae6bd8abd4\">Pobierz<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/2_analiza-miedzysektorowa.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of 2_analiza miedzysektorowa.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-b0670b3b-d9bb-4265-a33e-c110a7031271\" href=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/2_analiza-miedzysektorowa.pdf\">2_analiza miedzysektorowa<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/2_analiza-miedzysektorowa.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-b0670b3b-d9bb-4265-a33e-c110a7031271\">Pobierz<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/3_statystyki-i-wykresy.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of 3_statystyki i wykresy.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-16032088-abbd-4c19-b36c-337adeaaa0f0\" href=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/3_statystyki-i-wykresy.pdf\">3_statystyki i wykresy<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/3_statystyki-i-wykresy.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-16032088-abbd-4c19-b36c-337adeaaa0f0\">Pobierz<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Edycja tre\u015bci scenariuszy jest wyj\u0105tkowo pracoch\u0142onna i\u00a0wielow\u0105tkowa. Postanowili\u015bmy wi\u0119c w pierwszej kolejno\u015bci opublikowa\u0107 materia\u0142y cz\u0105stkowe. W za\u0142\u0105czeniu przedstawiamy analizy jako\u015bciowo &#8211; ilo\u015bciowe opisuj\u0105ce poruszone w\u00a0scenariuszach zagadnienia wraz z ocen\u0105 ich znaczenia w kontek\u015bcie wzajemnych powi\u0105za\u0144. Dane obejmuj\u0105 wszystkie obszary strategiczne i scenariusze powsta\u0142e w badaniu. Nie oby\u0142o si\u0119 tak\u017ce bez gar\u015bci statystyk dotycz\u0105cych samego badania, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[117,224,205],"tags":[277,194,84],"class_list":["post-3059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-agenda-2040","category-badania","category-promocja","tag-analiza-scenariuszy","tag-badania","tag-polska-agenda-odpornosci-cyfrowej-2040"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3059"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3059\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3070,"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3059\/revisions\/3070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cyfryzacja.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}